Good Side, Bad Side, Direct Hit?

The predicted storm track for Irene has shifted back and forth over the last couple of days, and now has us slightly back on the good side. They are predicting tropical storm conditions Saturday night, hurricane conditions Sunday, and tropical conditions again Sunday night.

It's calm right now after several windy days. As soon as I finish breakfast, I'll take the dinghy in and pick up some provisions, water, and a few things for the boat, mostly concentrating on safety gear. I hope there's some food left at the market.

At some point, I'll re-anchor, but haven't decided where to go yet. I think I'll go around the point to Cold Spring Harbor and see how it looks. It's a bit deeper with higher land surrounding it on 3 sides, and only exposed to the north. If the storm passes west of us, we won't get anything from the north. However, if it passes to the east, the wind's will be relatively lighter, but we will get some wind from the north as it passes by, which will be relatively lighter as well.

Now, if we get really lucky and it happens to pass directly over us, we'll only get winds from the east, a nice calm period, then more from the west. The best thing about this is that it'll give Zoe a chance to go outside. So, as perverse as it sounds, I'd prefer a direct hit to a near miss on either side. I also think a direct hit means less total time exposed to high winds.

I got a call from Paul last night. I think he was somewhat amused that by staying up here to avoid hurricane season, one came looking for me. But, as he likes to say when something bad happens, "it's better this way." Just think about it, I get to test out the boat and my anchors without having to go anywhere.